A SMAC in the Face #23:  Going Nowhere Slowly

In September 1939, Nazi Germany taught the world a new word – Blitzkreig (Lightning War) – when they conquered Poland in a matter of weeks after using extensive false flag operations and spurious justifications.  As an aside, seventeen days after the start of the invasion, the ‘morally superior’ socialist Soviet Union also invaded Poland in accordance with the Molotov – Ribbentrop Pact and they divvied up the country between them.  This supping with the devil was doomed to end badly.  In May 1940, Germany drove home the meaning of Blitzkrieg when they swept through Western Europe and Dunkirked the undercooked British Expeditionary Force.  To make sure that the world knew what Blitzkrieg meant, they unleashed Operation Barbarossa just over 13 months later on their erstwhile allies, the Russians.  They were only stopped at the gates of Moscow six months later.

Fast forward to the illegal American invasion of Iraq in 2003 during which they subdued a highly militarised country, 70% the area of Ukraine with a similar population, in 43 days half a world away.  With America razzamatazz marketing, they eschewed the word Blitzkrieg and instead referred to it as Shock and Awe.  Semantics.  It still just meant that a lot of people got needlessly killed rather quickly to satisfy the bloodlust of a few.  America also used lies to justify their invasion.  This was led by Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney with the dupes being George ‘Keep Away From Sharp Knives’ Bush and Tony Blair.  The lies were the supposed hidden weapons of mass destruction of the species Nuclei and Bacteria.

29 years later and another deluded putz, Putin, decided that his borders were looking untidy what with Ukraine making overtures to NATO.  This was a cold war foe, the hatred of whom was buried deep in the dark axions of an ex-KGB officer’s foetid mind.  Who would rid him of this turbulent ex-comedian, now president, he asked?  “Me!”  he answered himself after Trump failed to strongarm Zelensky over Biden’s son.  Having carefully prepared the ground like megalomaniacs before him, using false flag operations and the downright lie of the rebirth of Nazism in the Ukraine, he unleashed his version of a Biltzkrieg on the 24th of February.  His overwhelmingly superior forces stormed across the border from three sides and triumphantly went … nowhere.   They were soon bogged down and became the docile prey of Ukrainian drones circling above.  Nearly a month on and Russia has not yet captured a major city while suffering innumerable losses which they will not admit to on the pain of serious prison terms.   

Their lack of progress brought to mind that great SABC TV program, Going Nowhere Slowly, which aired from 2005 and featured a red 1966 Chev Impala called Chilli Pepper slowly touring South Africa and ending in many sticky situations like running out of gas. 

Perhaps Putz Putin would have done well to have watched this program before he decided to invade the largest country in Europe with his Schlock and Bore.

A SMAC in the Face #19: Russia’s Economy is Burgered

One thing that scientists, economists and your investment advisor love doing is to draw smooth curves through carefully selected sets of noisy data and float a whole pet theory.  If they’re not fudging the data when it doesn’t predict what they want, then they get a bit fanciful in their explanations as to why badly conforming data actually conforms in much the same way that politicians can convince people that a turd has a clean end.  As an engineer with an interest in how the world works and having evolved many theories about it around the braai, I am not adverse to dipping my toes into the chaotic world of data and making a prediction about Russia’s future and backing that up with a sexy curve. 

Executive summary: Russia’s economy is buggered.

But let’s take a step back.  In 1986, The Economist introduced the concept of the Big Mac Index as a semi-humorous illustration of the Purchasing Power Parity between countries as the Big Mac is a standardised product worldwide.  It encompasses a wide range of local factors in a single item such as wages, finance costs, agricultural efficiencies, property costs, etc.  By and large is has proven to be an accurate assessment and you don’t have to rely on experts.

The Big Mac, together with the iconic McDonalds logo has come to represent the superiority of Western (American) culture – sloth, overconsumption, hype and instant gratification amongst others – and helped establish Western hegemony over large parts of the world.  Before 1990 though, one place that definitely didn’t have a McDonalds was Russia.  Glasnost (openness) changed all that.  The first McDonalds restaurant opened in Moscow in 1990 and people queued for up to three hours to get a taste of freedom.  The old Russian joke of what has 500 legs but doesn’t move (a Russian bread queue) had to be updated.  This was hugely symbolic as it was the first time Russia had given the West a bear hug since 1917.  Now however, with Russia treating Ukraine like a McDonalds Drive-Thru, McDonalds has shuttered all 850 of its outlets in Russia.  It might be a symbolic gesture or just a hard-nosed realisation by management that Russians won’t be able to afford them in the future and they might as well get some good PR out of it.

This brought me to wondering if the iconic logo might be a predictor of Russia’s economy.  Squinting with one eye at the image and the data in a mirror in a darkened room without my glasses, it shows a surprising correlation.  The early years of opening up its economy showed it rising Phoenix-like from the cold ashes of communism with the GDP growth stabilising at above 5% for 10 years.  Then, around 2008, along came the Wall Street Wankers and blew up the World’s financial system with WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction) like toxic CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations) placed inside bank vaults around the world.  So far, the graphs correlate very nicely and the correlation would have continued to the second arch if Putin hadn’t invaded Ukraine by proxy in 2014.  As all good theorists, discarding those years as outliers, the dotted line now shows a fair correlation to the second arch.

Having established the validity of the McDonalds model, it’s possible to make an accurate prediction – the Russian economy is going to tank like a T-72 blown up by a Ukrainian missile.  I’ll have my Nobel Economics Prize now, thank you.

Book Review: Stalin – The Court of the Red Tsar

Rating: 5 out of 5

Of the two, the coterie of Stalin is virtually unknown as compared with Hitler’s entourage. This book illuminates these close friends & colleagues of Stalin. Some names might be remembered but most will be quickly forgotten after reading this book. The likes of Malenkov, Zhdanov, Beria & Molotov feature prominently towards the end of Stalin’s life.

Despite their high status & closeness to Stalin himself, the sycophantic nature of their relationship meant that Stalin was the supreme power, the marionette operator. Unlike Hitler who left the details of execution to his subordinates, Stalin increasingly initiated campaigns such as the Doctors’ & the Jewish Conspiracies. This attention to detail grew in his dotage probably due to the fact of increasing paranoia as his physical power ebbed aways.

In spite of being in Stalin’s inner circle, they were no safer nor less likely to be summarily denounced by Stalin & executed. A case in point is Molotov whose wife Polina was a Jewish. Due to abstaining in a vote whether she should be denounced & incarcerated in the Gulags for five years, Molotov was forced to make a grovelling apology at a meeting of the Central Committee for not voting for her denouncement; her nefarious crime was be friendly with certain Zionist Jews.

Stalin’s sadism is shown in numerous examples where he forces his subordinates to be become inebriated on pain of being tortured in the notorious Lubianka Prison. Threats of excruciatingly punishment were used as a method of tormenting his subordinates. Having known Stalin for years, they readily comprehended his capacity to action those threats.

Of his three children, Svetlana was the only one with sufficient chutzpah to speak openly to her father. Both his sons were disappointments but for different reasons. Yakov was captured by the Germans during WW2 & ultimately dying at their hands. As he was no supposed to have been captured, Stalin never forgave him. Like all the other Russian POWs, they were distrusted & persecuted forever. In spite of mediocre ability, Vasily was appointed an air force general but due to alcoholism & incompetence, he had to be side-lined.

Stalin was diabolical. He would be utterly charming to an associate at a party knowing full well that he had already signed the death warrant of the unsuspecting individual.

Personally I found the final years of Stalin’s life to be of more interest as I found a lot of the earlier years quite banal.

This is a landmark work which has only now been able to peel back the veil on the inner circle due to the available of newly released source material. It will forever be the gold standard in understanding Stalin’s relationship with his minions.