(Note this is only a barebones summary with most of the contradictory statements of the Trump regime omitted.)
Aeschylus, the Greek tragic dramatist, coined the maxim: In war, truth is the first casualty. The Prussian military analyst, Carl von Clausewitz, referred to the fog of war where decision makers have a very vague view of what is actually going on. In this regard, Trump has no peers. Given his penchant for lies, exaggerations, mis-directions, U-turns and obfuscations, these sayings are not only pertinent to the Iranian war thus far, but also to the status of the negotiations towards a peace deal and any of the supposed deals struck along the way, hence the fog of peace.
The day after the initial strikes on 28 February, Trump claimed that Iran was totally obliterated and they were prepared to negotiate, which he agreed to. This was immediately denied on both counts by the Iranians and the war continued against the ‘obliterated’ Iranian army. On March 6, 2026 Trump demanded “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”. On March 9, Trump said that “the war is very complete, pretty much”, and falsely claimed that the Iranian military had been destroyed again and the Strait of Hormuz had re-opened. A month later and it still hasn’t.
On March 21, it was reported that the US was preparing for potential peace talks with Iran, with six demands that Iran had previously rejected. On March 23, Trump postponed the ultimatum he had given on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which he claimed had been opened two days previously, citing “very good and productive conversations” with “a top person” in Iran and claimed “They called, I didn’t call. They want to make a deal, and we are very willing to make a deal”. Iran denied there had been any negotiations with Trump. Trump again claimed on 24 March that the US and Israel had “won” the war, even though both sides continued their attacks and the Hormuz Strait remained closed. On 26 March, Trump said that Iran was “begging” for a deal.
Iran’s intransigence stymied and embarrassed Trump forcing him to up his threats on 30 March 2026 to destroy all of Iran’s power plants, oil wells and desalination plants if a deal was not reached “shortly” and the Hormuz Strait not reopened “immediately”. After days of spurious deal announcements mixed with dire threats, he finally issued a 48-hour Götterdämmerungultimatum. The world held its breath and oil spiked. With two hours to go on 7 April, Trump announced that talks would be held in Pakistan and there would be a two-week ceasefire. Armageddon had been averted. The world breathed a sigh of relief, oil retreated and stock markets jumped. It was not to last as Israel continued to pound Hezbollah and Iran retaliated with missiles. Although Trump continued to promote the idea that they were getting close to a deal, Fox News, a staunch supporter, nevertheless showed the graphic below – the gulf between the parties was wider than the Straits of Hormuz. On 11 April JD Vance and his sidekicks arrived in Pakistan for negotiations. After a 21-hour session the talks collapsed and Trump threatened a “full naval blockade” on Iran.
Here we go again, rinse and repeat.
Perhaps the title should rather be, The Frog of Peace, as it seems that it gets stuck in everyone’s throats.