The Chances of Surviving Once Hospitalised with Covid are not Good

What struck me about the pandemic in the UK is that the infections in their 2 nd wave are running at roughly 10x the 1st wave yet their daily death rates are only slightly higher. I don’t wish to theorise about why that is so, but what I did find significant is how their death rate visually correlated exceptionally well to their hospitalization rate.

To check the correlation held reasonably well, I picked the 2 peaks as data points.  In the 1st peak, ~3200 people were hospitalised which should have led to 891 deaths while there were actually ~940 deaths.  At the 2nd peak, there were ~4250 hospitalisations which should have led to 1184 deaths while there were actually ~1250.  A good fit but, unfortunately, not a good fit for the patients.

Leave a Comment.