A SMAC in the Face #19: Russia’s Economy is Burgered

One thing that scientists, economists and your investment advisor love doing is to draw smooth curves through carefully selected sets of noisy data and float a whole pet theory.  If they’re not fudging the data when it doesn’t predict what they want, then they get a bit fanciful in their explanations as to why badly conforming data actually conforms in much the same way that politicians can convince people that a turd has a clean end.  As an engineer with an interest in how the world works and having evolved many theories about it around the braai, I am not adverse to dipping my toes into the chaotic world of data and making a prediction about Russia’s future and backing that up with a sexy curve. 

Executive summary: Russia’s economy is buggered.

But let’s take a step back.  In 1986, The Economist introduced the concept of the Big Mac Index as a semi-humorous illustration of the Purchasing Power Parity between countries as the Big Mac is a standardised product worldwide.  It encompasses a wide range of local factors in a single item such as wages, finance costs, agricultural efficiencies, property costs, etc.  By and large is has proven to be an accurate assessment and you don’t have to rely on experts.

The Big Mac, together with the iconic McDonalds logo has come to represent the superiority of Western (American) culture – sloth, overconsumption, hype and instant gratification amongst others – and helped establish Western hegemony over large parts of the world.  Before 1990 though, one place that definitely didn’t have a McDonalds was Russia.  Glasnost (openness) changed all that.  The first McDonalds restaurant opened in Moscow in 1990 and people queued for up to three hours to get a taste of freedom.  The old Russian joke of what has 500 legs but doesn’t move (a Russian bread queue) had to be updated.  This was hugely symbolic as it was the first time Russia had given the West a bear hug since 1917.  Now however, with Russia treating Ukraine like a McDonalds Drive-Thru, McDonalds has shuttered all 850 of its outlets in Russia.  It might be a symbolic gesture or just a hard-nosed realisation by management that Russians won’t be able to afford them in the future and they might as well get some good PR out of it.

This brought me to wondering if the iconic logo might be a predictor of Russia’s economy.  Squinting with one eye at the image and the data in a mirror in a darkened room without my glasses, it shows a surprising correlation.  The early years of opening up its economy showed it rising Phoenix-like from the cold ashes of communism with the GDP growth stabilising at above 5% for 10 years.  Then, around 2008, along came the Wall Street Wankers and blew up the World’s financial system with WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction) like toxic CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations) placed inside bank vaults around the world.  So far, the graphs correlate very nicely and the correlation would have continued to the second arch if Putin hadn’t invaded Ukraine by proxy in 2014.  As all good theorists, discarding those years as outliers, the dotted line now shows a fair correlation to the second arch.

Having established the validity of the McDonalds model, it’s possible to make an accurate prediction – the Russian economy is going to tank like a T-72 blown up by a Ukrainian missile.  I’ll have my Nobel Economics Prize now, thank you.

A SMAC in the Face #18:  The Mark of Zorrow

In the early hours of Thursday, the 24th of February, 190,000 Russian troops supported by 1000’s of tanks and armoured personnel carriers stormed across the Ukrainian borders from Belarus and two ‘disputed‘ Ukrainian territories in the world’s first non-attack by a sovereign state on another sovereign state, at least in the world according to Putin.  Since both sides of this ‘non-war’ use the same armaments, all the ‘non-belligerent’ Russian vehicles had huge white Z’s painted on them so they wouldn’t get shot by their comrades. 

For some Russians, this ‘peacekeeping’ operation has become a source of pride and it has spawned a homegrown fashion industry around the Z symbol.

However, for millions of Russians and the rest of the world except China, Pakistan, South Africa and some other polecat nations, this stain on Russia has become the Mark of Shame.

But for the 1000s of Ukrainians killed, this has become the Mark of Zorrow.

A SMAC in the Face # 17: A Tsar is Born

Russia made a fantastic investment years ago.  For the price of a few secondhand AK47s and unused landmines and providing free political schooling, they bought 27 years of kneejerk fealty from the governing ANC.  Meanwhile other cadres were toughing it out in the bastions of democracy and liberal thought – London, the Netherlands and Scandinavia.  Mbeki had it particularly tough puffing on his pipe while contemplating Dickens – it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. 

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, what did Russia actually do for South Africa apart from Putin offering Zuma a nuclear reactor and some secretive medical treatment for him and Mabuza?  Nada, nothing, niks!  Meanwhile the UK and the USA have been offering hugely beneficial trade deals and the northern European countries have been pouring billions into social and democracy strengthening projects.  This has been running at close to R17bn p.a. for the period 2012-2019, for example.

With Russia’s unilateral invasion – denazification or peacekeeping according to Putin – of Ukraine, which was a brother Socialist Republic until given complete independence by the Russian dominated Soviet, the ever flexible and hypocritical ANC has found itself with a self-inflicted wedgie.  It’s bending over backwards to the point that it’s about to disappear up its own arsehole.  Do they dissociate themselves from a friend with few benefits who has committed a blatant act of international aggression, do they prevaricate or do they support him?

DIRCO (aka Foreign Affairs, and we are not talking about Gigaba’s overseas mistress in New York) jumped the gun and asked Russia nicely to leave. This didn’t go down well with the ANC and, after a number of jumbled statements, the ANC’s position has becoming clearer – they wholeheartedly support a war criminal.

On 5 March, the ANC spokesidiot, Pule ‘The Other One’ Mabe, opined, “The ANC notes the draconian decision by the EU to impose sanctions on Russia … following the escalation of hostilities between Ukraine and Russia.”  What no mention of the massive and draconian invasion of a peaceful and truly democratic sovereign nation on the slimmest of trumped up pretexts?  He later goes on to disgorge this pearl of wisdom without a whiff of irony, “Stifling the plurality and diversity of views undermines internationally agreed principles on freedom of speech, choice and association. … the EU must still provide legal justification for this course of action.”  Really.  Does he actually believe that Putin allows now, or in the past, anything to be broadcast/published in Russia that he doesn’t like?  Stalin must be smiling.  The ANC are Russia’s useful idiots.  (And cheap at the price as Bosasa and the Guptas found out.)

SMAC in the Face #16:  P.O.E.S.* of the Year

(*P.O.E.S. – Person Of Extreme Stupidity)

This pre-empts Time’s Person of the Year by 10 months.  If Time is still around to award it then, I predict that Putin will be the winner, hands down.  It’s going to take an awful lot to displace him.  TS Eliot’s 1925 poem, The Hollow Men, ended with the lines:  This is the way the world ends/Not with a bang but a whimper.

Wrong, but then again, they hadn’t discovered the neutron yet, let alone the nuclear bomb, and it was to be 27 years before the unfortunate Mrs Putin would carry the spawn of the devil to term.  This single Horseman of the Apocalypse made the Time Magazine’s Person of the Year in 2007 when he completed his first term of office.  Time was rather presentient as they stated in the accompanying article, “If Russia fails, all bets are off for the 21st century.”  Perhaps they should have said, “If Putin fails, …”  After the drunken and chaotic Yeltsin years, Russia hankered for stability, order and the respect of being a superpower, even if it was oppressive dictatorships that provided it.  Cometh the hour, cometh the maniac – Putin.  Using all the techniques from the Communist playbook, he has taken complete control of the country until 2036 and has stopped all forms of opposition by assassinations and secret trials on trumped up charges – ask Novalny.

Using extensive false flag techniques, outright lying that the West was the aggressor and peddling false historical facts concerning the Ukraine, Putin justified the invasion of Ukraine in his and his coterie’s warped minds.  Unfortunately for his troops this wasn’t Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968 when a column of tanks could reinstall a puppet regime.  The Ukrainians have fought back.  As his triumphant invasion has stalled, the rhetoric has increasingly become unhinged to the point that he is effectively threatening nuclear Armageddon in the West. 

The West: I raise you 5 sanctions.  Putin: I raise you 2000 nuclear warheads.

How do you begin to negotiate with a P.O.E.S.? 

A SMAC in the Face #15: Chicken Kiev

In mid-1940 with the atavistic German hordes rampaging though Western Europe with little hinderance and staring down the barrels of multiple guns of multiple calibres, the French generals indicated their readiness to cravenly surrender to Hitler.  Churchill demurred and stated that Britain was going fight on.  Having stubbed his cigar in the eye of Gallic pride, the French generals, with their Gallic noses distinctly out of joint, replied that Britain would ‘have her neck wrung like a chicken.’ 

Having seen off the Germans in the Battle of Britain and just about surviving in the Mediterranean, Churchill was on a tour in Canada 18 months later when he related the story and added, “Some chicken! Some neck!”

Fast forward 81 years and we find Ukraine under the cosh of the Putinic forces intent on establishing a buffer state against Western Imperialisim – good old Communist knee-jerk paranoia.  According to some reports, the going has been slower than the Russians planned and Kiev seems be a tough old bird.

Chicken Kiev – Some chicken! Some neck!

A SMAC in the Face #14: Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick

In an early act of cultural appropriation, circa 1900, Theodore Roosevelt, then governor of New York, borrowed the West African proverb: “Speak softly and carry a big stick.”  Since then, this has become the cornerstone of American diplomacy and countless John Wayne-style westerns.

The West’s response to Putin’s blatant aggressive and posturing, like a dog on heat, has been decidedly tepid.  Their big stick has been more of a hoary old divining rod that twitches every so often, hopefully indicating a way forward. 

Hanging over the European nations, particularly Germany, is that fact that they have supped with the devil in seeking cheap gas supplied via a pipeline direct from Russia.  The result has been a few threatening statements and the flying in of a few extra weapons.  Oh yes, America did send a lightly armed battalion into Poland, more than 1000km away from any frontline.  The main weapon in the West’s response arsenal has been the threat of sanctions.

Sanctions never stopped Hugo Chavez nationalising the filthy rich Venezuela into economic oblivion.

Sanctions never gave a moment’s pause to Mugabe and his thugs as he stole elections through mass killings and intimidation and drove his country into miserable irrelevance, sucking off the desiccated hind tit of SA to survive.

Sanctions never stopped the Ayatollahs of Iran from spewing jihadist bile and continuing their nuclear weapons program.

Sanctions never stopped the young un of the hermit kingdom from growing fat on the backs of his people’s starvation while playing Solitaire Megalomania with his nuclear program and ICBM’s in his private bunker.

Sanctions never diverted the course of destructive socialism during the nigh-on 60 years of the Castro family’s ideological rule.

Closer to home, sanctions never caused the old Nationalist government to waver in the least in their racial beliefs and, in fact, served as a useful propaganda tool at election time.  Their kragdadigheid (forcefulness or hard-arsed attitude) in the face of international opprobrium served to drive all the fence sitters into their camp to deliver the largest majority that the Nationalist Party had ever seen.

Sanctimonious sanctions don’t work.  All they do is to provide those governments with a fig leaf to hide the embarrassment of their shrivelled-up impotence.  They are as irrelevant to the course of history as that flimsy piece of paper that Chamberlain waved when he claimed a “peace for our time” after a meeting with Hitler in 1938.

A SMAC in the Face #13:  A Dawn Deferred

Mandela promised us a Rainbow Nation colourfully and charismatically led by the Arch in his purple daze.

Mbeki next foresaw an African Renaissance which became a Dream Deferred until further notice when the historical library in Mali that SA helped refurbish was trashed by jihadists.

Zuma actually delivered a New Age, except it was a SOE funded newspaper written by his Gupta gabbas.

Cyril tossed his hat into the ring when he dared to dream of a New Dawn during his inauguration in 2018.

He doubled down on that idea in 2019 with an “I had a dream” moment.  He described inspirational, sangoma-like visons of bullet trains linking smart mega-cities, some of which didn’t exist yet (and never will).

Covid put grand dreams and schemes on hold except for people like Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma who had visions of a smoke and alcohol-free future which she could order by fiat.  For a brief period she wielded more power than all the previous presidents.  The Nationalist Party gave us Dr No (Dr AP Treurnicht) and the ANC gave us Dr Party Pooper with her mirthless, glum visage.  At a stroke of her poison administrative pen, she entrenched low-life criminal gangs in our society with their bootleg smokes and alcohol to the tjoon of 10s of billions of Rands, tax free. 

Covid also engendered visions of SA becoming a vaccination hub as a shot on the arm of the economy.  This pipe dream took root particularly after the developed world stuck it to us, not that we’ve done much with the vaccines now that they’re freely available.

Fast forward to the 2022 SONA. Cyril foretold of an end to the SOD (State of Disaster).  Unfortunately, he wasn’t talking about the resurrection of the country into a winning nation after 27 years of devastation caused by state capture, racist socialist policies and ideologies, incompetent and corrupt SOE Boards and executives, general corruption at every level and in every national, provincial and local department, overstaffing with overpaid, unmotivated and largely underqualified government employees, political and trade union violence and intransigence, political assassinations, pie-in-the-sky theoretical dreams like outcomes-based education, …. 

No, he was talking about something much easier.  At the stroke of an administrative pen, his war council will lift most of the remaining restrictions of our confinement.  Is it going to make much difference?  No, it just means that we can get mugged by people not wearing masks and sanitising beforehand.  Hopefully though, it will mean an end to the hugely overpriced and largely unnecessary deep cleaning of schools and government buildings on the nearest whiff of a Covid case – a small win in the junkyard of shattered dreams.

All I have to say is – SOD them and SOD off.

A SMAC in the Face #12: SONA se Moer

There are two standout features of a SONA (State of the Nation) address. 

The first is the outlandish and expensive garb of the ANC members, predominately.  Who could ever forget the wholly unsuitable yellow confection that one lady MP had poured herself into in and pulled poses for the cameras like it was the red carpet at the Oscars?  And then, of course, there was Lucy Gigaba, newly minted head of Pubic Enterprises, who took time off from videoing himself masturbating to nattily strut the catwalk looking like a debonair pilot flashing tons of pearly whites in a Peter Stuyvesant advert.  These are Marie Antoinette moments.

In recent years, these displays of self-aggrandisement and self-deception have been toned down but the self-aggrandisement and self-deception of the address and promises have not.  If things go according to script tonight, the Precedent will cherry pick some minor achievements and statistics to show that the government actually works for you.  He will then proceed to make vague promises about improving our lot and will unflinchingly look straight into the heart of the video camera while he claims that the government will clamp down on corruption – pinky promise.

With SA reeling under the impact of two years of Covid and four years of Zondo, Squirrel will have a tough time trying to hide his nuts.  Nevertheless, he will, and I predict that, once stripped of its banal rhetoric, tonight’s address will be same old, same old.  I will not be listening and all I can say is –

SONA SE MOER!

A SMAC in the Face #11 – The Party’s Over

The ANC was founded on 8 January 1912 and since 1994 it has celebrated this event in an expensive masturbatory orgy of self-indulgence as befitting our newly-minted champagne Socialists.

After nearly 50 years of negotiation with the intransigent White minority, the events surrounding Sharpeville in 1960 forced the ANC to adopt a militant approach to bring about change by making the country ungovernable using military action as well as civil disobedience and violence.  The intervening years also saw the ANC move from a purely African organisation to one that accommodated all races.

The struggle violence didn’t stop with the negotiations to bring about a new dawn but actually intensified – this time the targets being threats like the IFP, a brother black organisation. 

Violence became the new normal for the new South Africa and the ANC, like doting and indulgent parents, allowed its lackeys to continue to express themselves violently and destructively whenever they were dissatisfied with their lot.  The ANC (and by extension, the country) is now reaping the whirlwind of this indulgence, where violence has become acceptable political and economic discourse and councillors, amongst others, are regularly mowed down in order for others to feed at the lucrative but foetid trough of corruption.

Along the way, the ANC has gone back to its roots by having lost just about all its white members.  Those that remain are regarded as house mlungu or useful idiots and the few coloureds and Indians left are tolerated in its pretence of multiracialism.  It has become a party of Black people for Black people and is all about the struggle for factional political power and, hence, financial advantage.

A luta continua (the struggle continues), a rallying cry for liberation organisations, and its humorous translation, a looter continues, have never been more apt for the ANC.

A SMAC in the Face #10:  It’s Off to Woke We Go

2020 is going to go down in history as the year that Walt went woke.  Fresh from announcing that they will be seeking a new approach to the seven dwarves of Snow White, Stella McCartney was asked to reimagine Minnie Mouse.  The result is a not quite gender-neutral Minnie but, nevertheless, a manly and assertive Minnie in a power pants suit.  They did keep the bows and their polka dots to show that they hasn’t totally lost touch with their feminine side. 

They are busy running the rule through all of their creations looking for any hint of racism, subliminal or overt, and cultural appropriation.  I wonder when they are going to drop all their animal characters when they realise that animals have feelings too.  For instance, you can’t responsibly just go around portraying bulldogs as being gruff, fierce and not too bright while French poodles are snooty and superior.